The Numbers Behind Portuguese Olive Oil: Production and Exports

According to INE forecasts for 2023, Portugal should see a 25% rise in the production of olives for oil compared with the previous year. Prices, however, are not expected to change significantly, since they follow international benchmarks, which should remain stable.

This rise in production is down to higher average yields in traditional olive groves and to new intensive groves coming into production. Although price movements have been felt across several agricultural products, bulk olive oil leads the way with an increase of around 91%.

Olive production in Portugal (2018-2023)

Source: INE, I.P., Estado das Culturas e Previsão das Colheitas. Forecast values.

INE reports that the unit value of olive oil has been rising over recent years, but only in the last 12 months has it climbed by more than 50%.

• In November 2020, the unit value of olive oil was €2.9/kg;
• In the same month of 2023, that figure had risen to €6.5/kg.

This rise in the price of olive oil is also reflected in export revenues. Despite the fall in the volume exported compared with 2022 (-30.4%), exports from January to November 2023 accounted for €863.5 million. That translates into growth of 6.1%.

Olive oil exports (value and volume) (2019-2023)

Source: INE, I.P., Estatísticas do Comércio Internacional de Bens

Spain, Brazil and Italy account for more than 90% of exports of Portuguese olive oil. In 2023 these countries reached:

• Spain – €377.6 million;
• Brazil – €327.0 million;
• Italy – €78.9 million.

Export markets for Portuguese olive oil (2029-2023)

Source: INE, I.P., Estatísticas do Comércio Internacional de Bens

The trade balance (trade balance = exports minus imports) for olive oil reached €405.3 million in the cumulative figures from January to November 2023. That represents a fall of 7% on the same period the previous year, the result of imports rising more sharply (+21.3%) than exports (+6.1%).

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Sources: Boletim Mensal da Agricultura e Pescas, INE (January 2024); Casa do Azeite, in expresso.pt (December 2023)